The Election Looms

Political Chess

The three honest parties in the House of Commons seem, finally, to have come to the conclusion that the Liberal Party should not be governing. The Liberals, for their part, are determined to keep governing until at least February when they plan to unveil their buy-Canadians-with-their-own-money budget. They have manipulated the scheduling of the opposition days so that any successful non-confidence motion would result in a Christmas election, thus drawing the ire of the Canadian public to the opposition party foolish enough to pull the trigger. The Conservatives and the Bloc have said that they will not table a no-confidence motion. They cited a lack of trust in the NDP's willingness to commit to a unified three-party front, having seen them turn to support the government last spring after striking a deal on the budget. They declared that it was up to the NDP to make the first move, to show that they were serious this time.

Check.

After a couple days deliberation, the NDP's leader, Jack Layton, made his move today in a press conference in Vancouver. He proposed to table a motion on his opposition day, on November 24th, that would call on the government to dissolve parliament in early January for a mid-February vote. The motion would not be a confidence issue, nor would it be legally binding on the government, but it is wise nonetheless. It avoids calling an election over the holiday period, and it would allow the vote to take place before the Liberals can table a budget and before they can show themselves to have followed through on the recommendations in Justice Gomery's second report, due in early February. The reaction from the Conservatives and the Bloc have been amicable. Stephen Harper, the Conservative leader, called the proposal "innovative". To be honest, I could barely understand the Bloc's Gille Duceppe in an untranslated press conference, but it looks like he is open to the idea as well. The three parties are going to get together on the weekend to hammer out the details. By Monday, the three-party front that Harper and Duceppe sought will likely be achieved, and when the NDP motion passes on the 24th, the Liberals will have their backs against the wall.

Check.

But don't count the Liberals out just yet. As I mentioned already, the motion will not be a legally binding confidence motion, and the Liberals are sure to ignore it. They have already done so, rather egregariously, under similar circumstances when they lacked the House's confidence. The only question will be how much political pressure can they withstand. I think that once early January rolls around with an as yet undissolved parliament, the only recourse for all three opposition parties will be to express their lack of confidence by boycotting the House of Commons (as the Conservatives and the Bloc did last spring when their opposition days - and thus their opportunity to raise the question of confidence - were cancelled). By then, we'll see how unified the three-party front really is. Will the cornered king manage to escape? Time will tell.

What leaky faucet?

From ctv.ca at 11:20 PM on Monday night (6 hours and 40 minutes before any non-Liberal is allowed to see the Gomery report):

"Liberal insiders say former prime minister Jean Chretien and his associates will take the worst beating in the release of the first Gomery report Tuesday morning."

Who would have thought that the Liberals would leak information to the media before the public gets an objective look at the facts?