Quebec's Referendum in 1995:
"Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995, Yes or No?" Ten years ago, separatists mustered 49.4 percent of the vote in favour of that question, narrowly missing the majority necessary to secede from Canada. Quebec's mood has not improved much since. As of late, it has actually been getting worse. A poll published
La Presse on Friday found that 52 percent of Quebecers now favour forming an independant state. That number may increase after Tuesday, when Justice Gomery releases his report on the Sponsorship Scandal.
Of course, it is harder now than it was then for Quebec to secede, thanks to the
Clarity Act of 2000, which requires a clear majority on a clear question. However, despite of its name, the Clarity act is remarkably murky about what exactly constitutes a clear majority. In fact, it leaves it up to the House of Commons to determine whether or not a referendum did indeed constitute a clear expression of the will of the population,
after the referendum has already taken place. Imagine the political crisis that would precipitate if the separatists won a majority of the vote, but the House decides to ignore it on the grounds that a bigger majority or a higher percentage of participation among eligible voters is required. The open-endedness of the Clarity Act means that the House will always be able to declare as null a vote in favour of sovereignty. But that same open-endedness means that the separatists will always be able to argue that federalist parliamentarians are making up the rules as they go just to keep Quebec down. All the more reason to secede, they would argue.
But let us take a step back and remember how we got to this point. The Liberal Party, in an attempt to keep the country together after the 1995 referendum, launched an expensive advertising campaign to promote federalism in Quebec. The scheme backfired after it was disclosed that the federal goverenment had paid large sums to Liberal-friendly advertising firms in exchange for little or no work. Of this money, some $100 million found its way back into the Liberal Party's coffers. It was this scandal that brought sovereignty back to the fore. Tuesday's report may confirm the worst of suspicions about the Liberal Party corruptly exploiting Quebec.
Already, 54 out of Quebec's 75 federal ridings are represented in the House of Commons by the separatist Bloc Quebecois. By 2007, their provincial cousins, the Parti Quebecois, will probably win control of Quebec's government, setting the stage for a referendum. If the Liberal Party is still ruling Canada by then, we could be in for some trouble. The political crisis that could develop would be one that Paul Martin would not know how to handle. He might succeed in bribing the Bloc with an NDP-style budget deal to pour money on Quebec, but he may find members of a Parti Quebecois provincial government impervious to offers of Stronach-style federal cabinet positions.
In the next election, do not let the Liberal Party claim that they are the only ones who can hold Canada together, for it is their corruption and arrogance that is now threatening to tear it apart.
