Faded Stripes

Paul Martin's reputation, upon replacing Jean Chrétien as Prime Minister in 2003, was that of a competent stewart of the public's finances, having presided over the federal government's return to balanced budgets as Finance Minister. What is left of that legacy now? If there is a disconnect between the reputation of Finance Minister Paul Martin and Prime Minister Paul Martin, it is that the Prime Minister has lost all sense of fiscal prudence. Program spending increased by a whopping 15.1 percent last year, after an increase of 5.8 percent the year before. I am hesitant to speculate what the figure will be next year, once expenses from the NDP budget amendment are factored into the equation along with the Liberals' regular planned spending increases.

Today, Martin made his first announcement of the election campaign. He promised to make his national childcare program a permanent part of the Canadian benefits system by committing $6 billion from 2009 through to 2015, which will be in addition to the $5 billion already promised for the program for 2004 to 2009. This is exactly what Canada needs: another expensive social program that will be an engine for growth - not economic growth, but spending growth.

Paul Martin cites Quebec's provincial childcare program as a model for his nationwide, institutionalized daycare system, so it is instructive to compare Martin's future plans with Quebec's present reality. Quebec spent $1.4 billion this year on its childcare program, while Martin's proposal would spend $1 billion per year on a nationwide program. No, that is not a typo. He would spend less on a national program than it currently costs for the same program to be implemented in a single province. This implies one of two things; either the program will be woefully underfunded, or the provinces are expected to pick up most of the tab. If the latter is true, then Martin's plan would be putting added financial pressures on the provinces who - with the exception of Alberta - are all already in deficit. In any event, the former is also likely to be true as well. Quebec spent only $297 million on the program in 1997. The CBC reports that even after the wild growth in Quebec's expenditure towards it, "...still the program is seen as underfunded."

At best, this proposal will create a permanent sinkhole for public money, if it succeeds in creating anything at all. If he has not done so already, Paul Martin the Prime Minister has officially shed what was once seen as Paul Martin the Finance Minister's greatest strength.